Does El Niño Make a Major Hurricane a Rare Event?
Not every hurricane is a rare event. Most people use “rare event” to describe anything unusual or surprising. However, the term has a more specific meaning: an event with low probability and high consequence. The difference matters because it shapes how we plan and how we communicate risk to decision makers. Probability alone does not tell the whole story, so engineering judgment and historical context have to fill in the rest.
The question is timely. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports that a strong El Niño is in place and still strengthening, with a strong-to-very-strong event likely through the winter. With the final stretch of the 2026 hurricane season still ahead, it is a good time to ask which hurricanes are truly rare events and which are not.
The Base Rate and Hurricane Categories
In hurricane climatology, the Saffir–Simpson scale provides a natural break point for understanding rarity. Category 1 and 2 hurricanes form the base rate for the Carolinas. They occur frequently enough, including during El Niño years, that emergency managers, utilities, and coastal communities have well‑established procedures for dealing with them.
Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes are classified as major hurricanes. Their wind speeds and destructive potential differ fundamentally from base‑rate storms. For the Carolinas, major hurricanes are infrequent. The highest categories (4 and 5) are extremely rare.
El Niño conditions typically suppress Atlantic major hurricanes through increased vertical wind shear. In those years, the probability of a Category 3, 4, or 5 landfall on the Carolinas drops even further.
What a Rare Event Is (and Isn’t)
A rare event is a low‑probability, high‑consequence event. Rare events are statistical outliers that stress our systems, organizations, and communities. They are usually driven by external forces rather than the internal factors we manage every day, and they tend to hit harder and reach farther than expected.
In most cases, a rare event is not a single event but rather a series of events. A major hurricane is a good example. Wind and storm surge cause structural damage, which cascades into safety, environmental, and public health risks that persist until systems are restored.
Frequency is the main thing that separates a rare event from a normal risk, but consequences and context blur the line. As I noted in a 2020 post on overcoming crisis caused by rare events, Category 1 hurricanes are almost annual events along the U.S. Gulf Coast; there, a Category 3 and its impacts are the tipping point. Duration matters, too. For a five‑ to seven‑year capital project in Mobile or New Orleans, minor hurricanes are a normal project risk while a major hurricane is a rare event.
Major Hurricanes in El Niño Years
The historical record is clear. Since 1900, no Category 4 or 5 hurricane has made landfall on the Carolina coast during an El Niño year. Even Hurricane Fran in 1996, a Category 3 storm that remains a benchmark for many North Carolinians, struck during an ENSO-neutral period following the La Niña conditions of 1995.
Fran is now thirty years in the rearview mirror. It was destructive, memorable, and for many North Carolinians, a defining storm. That vividness is part of the challenge. People tend to overestimate the likelihood of rare events they can vividly recall, while the long gaps between them invite complacency. As I wrote earlier this year, what constitutes a rare event is often in the eyes of the beholder. A major hurricane landfall on the Carolinas during El Niño is uncommon. A Category 4 or 5 would be even more so.
Should we still consider a Category 4 or 5 Carolina landfall during El Niño a rare event? Yes. The climatological record supports it. The ENSO science supports it. And the absence of such storms over more than a century reinforces it.
Category 1 and 2 Hurricanes in El Niño Years
While major hurricanes are muted during El Niño, Category 1 and 2 storms still strike the Carolinas regularly and form the base rate. They cause damage, but they do not meet the rarity threshold. That is why in the US Southeast even minor hurricanes belong in normal project risk planning rather than on the rare‑event list.
The same logic applies along the Gulf Coast, just with a different base rate. Minor hurricanes strike there more often. Major hurricanes, while still rare events, are less rare than they are in the Carolinas.
The Planning Horizon Matters Too
The differences underscore why decision makers must distinguish between routine risk and rare-event risk.
A 100‑year flood has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year, but roughly a 26 percent chance over a 30‑year period. The longer the horizon, the less “rare” a rare event becomes.
Why Rare Events Matter
The fact that the Carolinas have not seen a Category 4 or 5 hurricane during an El Niño year does not eliminate the possibility. It simply means the probability is low, and the consequences would be high if it happened. Rare events expose weaknesses in critical infrastructure and emergency management. They deserve disciplined attention and systems thinking.
Other 2026 Hurricane Season Articles
JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.
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