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With the final stretch of the 2026 hurricane season still ahead, it is a good time to ask which hurricanes are truly rare events and which are not.

With the final stretch of the 2026 hurricane season still ahead, it is a good time to ask which hurricanes are truly rare events and which are not.

Does El Niño Make a Major Hurricane a Rare Event?

While major hurricanes are muted during El Niño, Category 1 and 2 storms still strike the Carolinas regularly and form the base rate. They cause damage, but they do not meet the rarity threshold.

JD Solomon

Oct 12

The bottom line: a wider hurricane cone means more uncertainty about the storm.

The bottom line: a wider hurricane cone means more uncertainty about the storm.

What the Hurricane Cone Actually Tells You... and what it doesn't

The cone contains the probable path of the storm but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone.

JD Solomon

Sep 11

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