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Mean Life, Service Life, and the Two-Thirds Rule of Thumb
The two thirds rule of thumb emerges from typical Weibull behavior. Mechanical assets often have shape parameters (β) between 2 and 4. When service life is defined at a high reliability threshold—say, the point where 90% or 95% of units are still surviving—the ratio of mean life to service life tends to fall in a narrow band.

JD Solomon
Mar 20


The Top Ten Ways to Express Asset Value
Across engineering, finance, insurance, and operations, at least 10 commonly used expressions of asset value are used in practice. Understanding them reduces confusion and improves decision‑making.

JD Solomon
Feb 16


Why Asset Value is Poorly Done in Asset Management Programs
Treating asset valuation as a periodic, standardized engineering process mirrors the rigor of condition assessments and ensures that data remains both defensible and operationally relevant.

JD Solomon
Feb 5


Three Ways to Look at Asset Life…and why it matters more than you think
High-reliability organizations (HROs) build bridges between these viewpoints. They align engineering, finance, and operations so that asset decisions are defensible, practical, and focused on long-term value.

JD Solomon
Jan 5


Only Two September Hurricane Seasons Have Been This Slow. What's Next?
There have only been two hurricane seasons in the past 125 years that have been as quiet as this one.

JD Solomon
Sep 21, 2025


The Top 6 Hurricane Tracking Websites of 2025
Once again, you’ll need the best sources of information to tell you when it’s time to batten down the hatches or get ready to be on the move.

JD Solomon
Sep 14, 2025


5 Things to Remember When Facilitating an Uncertain Future
Developing useful predictions requires facilitators and participants to understand a handful of key concepts related to predictions, probability, and risks.

JD Solomon
Aug 19, 2025


2024 Hurricane Season Summary
The devastation of Hurricane Helene will impact multiple generations in western North Carolina.

JD Solomon
Nov 12, 2024


A 5-Year Autopsy: 2019 Asset Management and Reliability Predictions, Then and Now
We are at a pivotal time in physical asset management. The nexus of technology, AI, and the new workforce makes it so.

JD Solomon
Jun 18, 2024


Asset Management: Why Important Differences in Useful Life and Service Life Matter
The purpose of a useful life estimate is to determine how long an asset will remain in useable condition. "Useful life" is not the same...

JD Solomon
Oct 2, 2023


Beware of Monte Carlo Analysis for New Project Development
Monte Carlo analysis de-emphasizes extreme events, which are usually the things that cause major projects and capital program to fail. Monte Carlo analysis has some key limitations that make the technique a major cause of concern for new project development. This article discusses four contradictions that every organization should be aware (and beware) when developing new capital programs. A balanced approach using qualitative and quantitative techniques is advised. Caveats O

JD Solomon
Feb 15, 2023


How to Improve Your Communication of Probability to Senior Management
The Chance of Rain Most people do not understand what the chance of rain means. Some believe it means it will rain "30% of the day,"...

JD Solomon
Nov 21, 2022


Three Solutions for Establishing Useful Probability Distributions
Monte Carlo simulations are the best approach for assessing uncertainty for future infrastructure and facilities funding requirements....

JD Solomon
Sep 26, 2022


Why Are You Wasting Infrastructure Money By Not Using Monte Carlo Analysis?
If you are not using Monte Carlo simulations to inform your asset management decision making, then it is nearly certain that you are leaving value on the table. Understanding the total cost of ownership is a fundamental principle of asset management of facilities and infrastructure. However, all of our knowledge is about the past. All of our decisions are about the future. Monte Carlo analysis is our best tool for bridging our knowledge of the past with future uncertainties.

JD Solomon
Sep 19, 2022


Why I Will Never See an Ensemble Model on an Asset Management Project
Hurricane tracking is very good these days, especially in forecasting storm intensity and location two to seven days in advance....

JD Solomon
Sep 13, 2022


Better Data Quality is a Significant Outcome of Forecasting Lifecycle Costs
The most significant value is the holistic relationships of the inputs because all of the inputs must make sense independently and together.

JD Solomon
Dec 8, 2021


Drinking Treated Wastewater Is Still A Few Years Away
Drinking treated wastewater is still a few years away because there is not enough demand for it. The technology exists that makes it...

JD Solomon
Nov 11, 2021
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