Accuracy is uneven and depends heavily on the history a given model was trained on. Some AI models track storms well but forecast intensity poorly, or the reverse. They recognize patterns from the past, so they struggle with storms unlike anything in their training data.

New for NOAA in 2026: smaller, more accurate forecast cones and an experimental cone that shows the true range of track uncertainty. A must-have on any list.

So show me the money! What is your facility or system going to cost over the next 20 years, and what is your data telling you about that number?

RUL is a reliability concept. It estimates how much longer an asset will perform its intended function before failure. RUL depends on condition, environment, duty cycle, maintenance quality, and failure modes. It is not the same as “years left on the depreciation schedule,” and it is not the same as OEM service life minus age.

The two thirds rule of thumb emerges from typical Weibull behavior. Mechanical assets often have shape parameters (β) between 2 and 4. When service life is defined at a high reliability threshold—say, the point where 90% or 95% of units are still surviving—the ratio of mean life to service life tends to fall in a narrow band.

Across engineering, finance, insurance, and operations, at least 10 commonly used expressions of asset value are used in practice. Understanding them reduces confusion and improves decision‑making.

Treating asset valuation as a periodic, standardized engineering process mirrors the rigor of condition assessments and ensures that data remains both defensible and operationally relevant.

High-reliability organizations (HROs) build bridges between these viewpoints. They align engineering, finance, and operations so that asset decisions are defensible, practical, and focused on long-term value.

There have only been two hurricane seasons in the past 125 years that have been as quiet as this one.

Once again, you’ll need the best sources of information to tell you when it’s time to batten down the hatches or get ready to be on the move.

Developing useful predictions requires facilitators and participants to understand a handful of key concepts related to predictions, probability, and risks.

The devastation of Hurricane Helene will impact multiple generations in western North Carolina.

We are at a pivotal time in physical asset management. The nexus of technology, AI, and the new workforce makes it so.

Useful life can have several meanings. Ultimately, estimating useful life in terms of ranges and using Monte Carlo simulations for forecasting is the most effective and efficient approach. The purpose of a useful life estimate is to determine how long an asset will remain in useable condition. "Useful life" is not the same as the actual life of an asset. A piece of equipment may last far longer than its estimated useful life, but it will need more and more maintenance as it r

Monte Carlo analysis de-emphasizes extreme events, which are usually the things that cause major projects and capital program to fail. Monte Carlo analysis has some key limitations that make the technique a major cause of concern for new project development. This article discusses four contradictions that every organization should be aware (and beware) when developing new capital programs. A balanced approach using qualitative and quantitative techniques is advised. Caveats O

The Chance of Rain Most people do not understand what the chance of rain means. Some believe it means it will rain "30% of the day,"...

Establishing useful probability distributions can be interactive and entertaining. Monte Carlo simulations are the best approach for assessing uncertainty for future infrastructure and facilities funding requirements. However, developing (or choosing) a probability distribution is a major factor in most technical professionals’ decisions not to use this approach. Here are three solutions for establishing a useful probability distribution. Probability Distributions: Definitio

If you are not using Monte Carlo simulations to inform your asset management decision making, then it is nearly certain that you are leaving value on the table. Understanding the total cost of ownership is a fundamental principle of asset management of facilities and infrastructure. However, all of our knowledge is about the past. All of our decisions are about the future. Monte Carlo analysis is our best tool for bridging our knowledge of the past with future uncertainties.

Hurricane tracking is very good these days, especially in forecasting storm intensity and location two to seven days in advance....

The most significant value is the holistic relationships of the inputs because all of the inputs must make sense independently and together.