Only Two September Hurricane Seasons Have Been This Slow. What's Next?
- JD Solomon
- Sep 21
- 3 min read
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually slow in September. In fact, September is typically the most active month of the hurricane season. So, what does history teach us? What can we expect for October and early November, given that September has been quiet?
Why September Matters
September is usually the peak for hurricane activity. Warm ocean waters, lower wind shear, and a steady train of African easterly waves give storms everything they need to thrive. Think of September as "prime time" for hurricanes. So when that month is slow, it feels like something is off.
In 2025, the reasons are clear: layers of dry, dusty air from the Sahara have blanketed much of the tropical Atlantic, wind shear has been stronger than normal, and the atmosphere itself has been pretty stable. Even with moderately warm sea-surface temperatures — the fuel for hurricanes — storms have struggled to organize. It's like trying to light a campfire with damp wood: the fuel is there, but the conditions just won't cooperate.
History Has a Few Lessons
This year isn't the first time we've seen a quiet September. The 1994 season, for example, barely produced anything in September or October. Then, almost out of nowhere, two hurricanes popped up in November.
Back in 1914, the Atlantic had one of the quietest seasons on record, with essentially no hurricanes after mid-September.
These examples remind us of a couple of things. A quiet September doesn't always mean a quiet year. However, there have only been two hurricane seasons in the past 125 years that have been as quiet as this one.
What to Watch in October
There are a few possibilities:
A Late-Season Burst
The atmosphere can shift quickly. If the dry air lifts, the wind shear relaxes, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO, a term tropical storm-friendly conditions) swings into a favorable phase, storm development can ramp up in a hurry.
Storms Taking a Different Path
October storms often form closer to home in the Caribbean or the western Atlantic rather than far out in the Atlantic Ocean near Africa. That can mean less time to watch them spin across the ocean and more concern for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast U.S.
It Stays Quiet
The same factors that shut things down in September carry into October. Strong shear, dry air, or a stubborn atmospheric pattern can persist, limiting activity. That's what happened in seasons like 1914, where the lights basically went out early.
Looking Ahead in 2025
Forecasts suggest that October and November 2025 could still bring activity. There’s talk of a possible shift toward La Niña conditions later this year, which typically favors more Atlantic storms. If that happens, the quiet we saw in September may give way to a busier late season.
While you enjoy the lull, keep your hurricane kit stocked and keep a close eye on the forecast. October has a way of reminding us that the season isn't done until it's done.
JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.
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