Only Two September Hurricane Seasons Have Been This Slow. What's Next?

September is "prime time" for hurricanes. What does that mean for October?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually slow in September. In fact, September is typically the most active month of the hurricane season. So, what does history teach us? What can we expect for October and early November, given that September has been quiet?

Why September Matters

September is usually the peak for hurricane activity. Warm ocean waters, lower wind shear, and a steady train of African easterly waves give storms everything they need to thrive. Think of September as "prime time" for hurricanes. So when that month is slow, it feels like something is off.

In 2025, the reasons are clear: layers of dry, dusty air from the Sahara have blanketed much of the tropical Atlantic, wind shear has been stronger than normal, and the atmosphere itself has been pretty stable. Even with moderately warm sea-surface temperatures — the fuel for hurricanes — storms have struggled to organize. It's like trying to light a campfire with damp wood: the fuel is there, but the conditions just won't cooperate.

History Has a Few Lessons

This year isn't the first time we've seen a quiet September. The 1994 season, for example, barely produced anything in September or October. Then, almost out of nowhere, two hurricanes popped up in November.

Back in 1914, the Atlantic had one of the quietest seasons on record, with essentially no hurricanes after mid-September.

These examples remind us of a couple of things. A quiet September doesn't always mean a quiet year. However, there have only been two hurricane seasons in the past 125 years that have been as quiet as this one.

What to Watch in October

There are a few possibilities:

A Late-Season Burst

The atmosphere can shift quickly. If the dry air lifts, the wind shear relaxes, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO, a term tropical storm-friendly conditions) swings into a favorable phase, storm development can ramp up in a hurry.

Sea temperatures in 2025 in the Main Development Region (MDR) have been cooler than in 2023 and 2024 (Source: University of Maine)

Storms Taking a Different Path

October storms often form closer to home in the Caribbean or the western Atlantic rather than far out in the Atlantic Ocean near Africa. That can mean less time to watch them spin across the ocean and more concern for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast U.S.

It Stays Quiet

The same factors that shut things down in September carry into October. Strong shear, dry air, or a stubborn atmospheric pattern can persist, limiting activity. That's what happened in seasons like 1914, where the lights basically went out early.

Looking Ahead in 2025

Forecasts suggest that October and November 2025 could still bring activity. There’s talk of a possible shift toward La Niña conditions later this year, which typically favors more Atlantic storms. If that happens, the quiet we saw in September may give way to a busier late season.

While you enjoy the lull, keep your hurricane kit stocked and keep a close eye on the forecast. October has a way of reminding us that the season isn't done until it's done.

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JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method^©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.

Does EPA Endorse PFAS Minimization Plans for Industrial Facilities?

The primary purpose of PFAS minimization plans is to prevent contamination from entering public wastewater treatment systems and community water bodies (visual source: YouTube/USEPA).

The purpose of waste minimization plans is to reduce or eliminate the release of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from industrial and commercial sources before they contaminate public water systems or the environment. These plans are a proactive strategy to manage PFAS at the source, which minimizes exposure risks to communities and the environment before contamination becomes widespread or expensive to clean up.

Key Goals of Minimization Plans

1. Identify sources of pollutant use or generation within industrial operations.

2. Implement best management practices (BMPs) to reduce or eliminate PFAS discharges to air, water, and land.

3. Prevent future liabilities and minimize long-term remediation costs for downstream water users.

4. Protect downstream drinking water sources and aquatic ecosystems.

5. Support compliance with regulatory requirements, including future limits.

Pollution prevention (P2), also known as source reduction, is any practice that reduces, eliminates, or prevents pollution at its source prior to recycling, treatment, or disposal. - USEPA

Source Reduction Techniques

These are the top source reduction techniques determined by USEPA after two decades of monitoring and measurement. The list is in descending order of effectiveness. In some cases, higher-ranked alternatives may not be feasible in every operating context.

1. Material Substitutions & Modifications

2. Product Modifications

3. Process & Equipment Modifications

4. Operating Practices & Training

5. Inventory & Material Management

EPA’s Position on PFAS Minimization Plans

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endorses source control and pollution prevention measures, including PFAS minimization plans, especially as part of its PFAS Strategic Roadmap.

In several contexts, the EPA has promoted or required PFAS minimization strategies:

• National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Permits: EPA issued guidance in April 2022 recommending that states and regions include PFAS minimization plans in NPDES permits for industrial and municipal dischargers, even in cases where PFAS is not yet regulated with numeric limits. This helps prevent PFAS from entering surface waters and drinking water supplies.

  
  

• Pre-treatment Programs: For industrial users that send wastewater to municipal treatment plants (Municipal Treatment Works, or POTWs), the EPA encourages the use of pre-treatment controls to minimize PFAS discharges into the sewer system, recognizing that POTWs often struggle to treat PFAS effectively.

  
  

• Pollution Prevention (P2) Tools: Through the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and P2 programs, the EPA promotes substitution of PFAS chemicals with safer alternatives and encourages voluntary minimization efforts by industry.

PFAS Minimization Plans Are a Proactive Approach

Minimization plans are a preventive approach that EPA supports as part of a broader strategy to protect drinking water sources, reduce exposure risks, and encourage responsible industry practices. They are particularly important before PFAS reaches water bodies or public wastewater treatment systems, when mitigation is far more difficult and costly.

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JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method^©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.

The Top 6 Hurricane Tracking Websites of 2025

September continues to be a good month for surf fishing and a lack of tropical storms. For October, who knows? These are the Top 6 hurricane tracking websites for 2025.

Hurricane season is upon us in the US Southeast. Once again, you’ll need the best sources of information to tell you when it’s time to batten down the hatches or get ready to be on the move. This year, I have also included insights on emergency flood models, seasonal forecasting, and ocean temperature trends. These are my Top 6 sources for predicting and tracking hurricanes in 2025.

#1 NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Still the most authoritative source for real-time data, forecasts, and advisories. It’s a must-have on any list.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

#2 Tropical Tidbits

Levi Cowan continues offering excellent insights, making this site a favorite among weather enthusiasts and professionals.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

#3 Mike’s Weather Page (Spaghetti Models)

This page remains a valuable resource, especially with its aggregation of multiple models and easy-to-digest updates.

Mike’s Weather Page… powered by Firman Power Equipment! (spaghettimodels.com)

#4 Track the Tropics

The site is a comprehensive resource with quick access to various models and data.

http://trackthetropics.com/

#5 Weather Underground

Although it has undergone some changes over the years, it remains a strong source of localized weather data.

https://www.wunderground.com/

#6 The Eyewall

Mostly a commentary and interpretive blog by meteorologists. It's good for digestible summaries of "what to expect" and "what it means to me."

https://theeyewall.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Emergency Response

North Carolina has a great publicly available site called FIMAN (Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network) for travel needs. FIMAN displays current and forecasted water levels from hundreds of locations throughout North Carolina’s streams and coasts, helping residents and travelers make informed decisions during flood events.

 https://fiman.nc.gov/

Some southeast US states, including state departments of transportation (DOTs) and emergency management systems, have developed similar tools in recent years. If you are traveling after a major weather event, find your local sites.

Seasonal Forecasting

WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger is boldly reimagining seasonal forecasting and agricultural meteorology through the use of proprietary technologies. It's on Substack and subscription-based. To date, I use it more as a reference and for weather insights, rather than for real-time tracking.

https://weathertiger.com/

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) offers a leading resource for predicting and mapping tropical storm activity worldwide. TSR has won two major insurance industry awards: the British Insurance Awards for Risk Management (2006) and London Market Innovation (2004).

Useful early in the season or before storms form; less useful when a storm is active (for immediate decisions).

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Ocean Temperature Trends

University of Miami – Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science

The overarching focus of the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science's Upper Ocean Dynamics Laboratory (UODL) is to develop, implement, and disseminate academic research on the coupling between the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers under both weak and strong wind conditions.

https://upper-ocean-dynamics.earth.miami.edu/research/ocean-heat-content/index.html

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/?os=vb_&ref=app

University of Maine - Climate Change Institute

Climate Reanalyzer began in early 2012 as a platform for visualizing climate and weather forecast models. Site content is organized into three general categories: Weather Forecasts, Climate Charts, and Research Tools.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=atlhmdr

The Top 6 Hurricane Prediction Websites

Hurricane season is upon us in the US Southeast. Once again, you’ll need the best sources of information to tell you when it’s time to batten down the hatches or get ready to be on the move. This year, I have also included insights on emergency flood models, seasonal forecasting, and ocean temperature trends. These are my Top 6 sources for predicting and tracking hurricanes in 2025. I hope these top websites are as helpful to you as they are to me.

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JD Solomon Inc. provides solutions for program development, asset management, and facilitation at the nexus of facilities, infrastructure, and the environment. Visit our Environmental page for more information.

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JD Solomon is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.