Only Two September Hurricane Seasons Have Been This Slow. What's Next?

September is "prime time" for hurricanes. What does that mean for October?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually slow in September. In fact, September is typically the most active month of the hurricane season. So, what does history teach us? What can we expect for October and early November, given that September has been quiet?

Why September Matters

September is usually the peak for hurricane activity. Warm ocean waters, lower wind shear, and a steady train of African easterly waves give storms everything they need to thrive. Think of September as "prime time" for hurricanes. So when that month is slow, it feels like something is off.

In 2025, the reasons are clear: layers of dry, dusty air from the Sahara have blanketed much of the tropical Atlantic, wind shear has been stronger than normal, and the atmosphere itself has been pretty stable. Even with moderately warm sea-surface temperatures — the fuel for hurricanes — storms have struggled to organize. It's like trying to light a campfire with damp wood: the fuel is there, but the conditions just won't cooperate.

History Has a Few Lessons

This year isn't the first time we've seen a quiet September. The 1994 season, for example, barely produced anything in September or October. Then, almost out of nowhere, two hurricanes popped up in November.

Back in 1914, the Atlantic had one of the quietest seasons on record, with essentially no hurricanes after mid-September.

These examples remind us of a couple of things. A quiet September doesn't always mean a quiet year. However, there have only been two hurricane seasons in the past 125 years that have been as quiet as this one.

What to Watch in October

There are a few possibilities:

A Late-Season Burst

The atmosphere can shift quickly. If the dry air lifts, the wind shear relaxes, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO, a term tropical storm-friendly conditions) swings into a favorable phase, storm development can ramp up in a hurry.

Sea temperatures in 2025 in the Main Development Region (MDR) have been cooler than in 2023 and 2024 (Source: University of Maine)

Storms Taking a Different Path

October storms often form closer to home in the Caribbean or the western Atlantic rather than far out in the Atlantic Ocean near Africa. That can mean less time to watch them spin across the ocean and more concern for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast U.S.

It Stays Quiet

The same factors that shut things down in September carry into October. Strong shear, dry air, or a stubborn atmospheric pattern can persist, limiting activity. That's what happened in seasons like 1914, where the lights basically went out early.

Looking Ahead in 2025

Forecasts suggest that October and November 2025 could still bring activity. There’s talk of a possible shift toward La Niña conditions later this year, which typically favors more Atlantic storms. If that happens, the quiet we saw in September may give way to a busier late season.

While you enjoy the lull, keep your hurricane kit stocked and keep a close eye on the forecast. October has a way of reminding us that the season isn't done until it's done.

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JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method^©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.

Does EPA Endorse PFAS Minimization Plans for Industrial Facilities?

The primary purpose of PFAS minimization plans is to prevent contamination from entering public wastewater treatment systems and community water bodies (visual source: YouTube/USEPA).

The purpose of waste minimization plans is to reduce or eliminate the release of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from industrial and commercial sources before they contaminate public water systems or the environment. These plans are a proactive strategy to manage PFAS at the source, which minimizes exposure risks to communities and the environment before contamination becomes widespread or expensive to clean up.

Key Goals of Minimization Plans

1. Identify sources of pollutant use or generation within industrial operations.

2. Implement best management practices (BMPs) to reduce or eliminate PFAS discharges to air, water, and land.

3. Prevent future liabilities and minimize long-term remediation costs for downstream water users.

4. Protect downstream drinking water sources and aquatic ecosystems.

5. Support compliance with regulatory requirements, including future limits.

Pollution prevention (P2), also known as source reduction, is any practice that reduces, eliminates, or prevents pollution at its source prior to recycling, treatment, or disposal. - USEPA

Source Reduction Techniques

These are the top source reduction techniques determined by USEPA after two decades of monitoring and measurement. The list is in descending order of effectiveness. In some cases, higher-ranked alternatives may not be feasible in every operating context.

1. Material Substitutions & Modifications

2. Product Modifications

3. Process & Equipment Modifications

4. Operating Practices & Training

5. Inventory & Material Management

EPA’s Position on PFAS Minimization Plans

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endorses source control and pollution prevention measures, including PFAS minimization plans, especially as part of its PFAS Strategic Roadmap.

In several contexts, the EPA has promoted or required PFAS minimization strategies:

• National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Permits: EPA issued guidance in April 2022 recommending that states and regions include PFAS minimization plans in NPDES permits for industrial and municipal dischargers, even in cases where PFAS is not yet regulated with numeric limits. This helps prevent PFAS from entering surface waters and drinking water supplies.

  
  

• Pre-treatment Programs: For industrial users that send wastewater to municipal treatment plants (Municipal Treatment Works, or POTWs), the EPA encourages the use of pre-treatment controls to minimize PFAS discharges into the sewer system, recognizing that POTWs often struggle to treat PFAS effectively.

  
  

• Pollution Prevention (P2) Tools: Through the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and P2 programs, the EPA promotes substitution of PFAS chemicals with safer alternatives and encourages voluntary minimization efforts by industry.

PFAS Minimization Plans Are a Proactive Approach

Minimization plans are a preventive approach that EPA supports as part of a broader strategy to protect drinking water sources, reduce exposure risks, and encourage responsible industry practices. They are particularly important before PFAS reaches water bodies or public wastewater treatment systems, when mitigation is far more difficult and costly.

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JD Solomon is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc., the creator of the FINESSE fishbone diagram®, and the co-creator of the SOAP criticality method^©. He is the author of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision Makers: How to Get Your Boss’s Boss to Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful Business Solutions.

Should You Share Pictures and Videos Before a Big Presentation?

Complex pictures and videos slow reaction time. Share them in advance.

High-stakes business presentations require careful planning. A common question is whether to send pictures or videos to your audience before the meeting. The answer is yes, but it depends on your goals and how the visuals will be used.

When Sharing in Advance Helps

Pictures and videos are powerful tools for preparing your audience. Charts, schematics, and process diagrams are usually complex. Sending your visuals early gives senior leadership more time to understand the material. That extra time helps produce better questions and a deeper understanding.

Sharing in advance also builds trust and alignment. For example, previewing a video with a key decision maker before the big meeting can help them feel more comfortable. They will be more ready to support you in front of others.

When Sharing Early Can Backfire

Not all visuals should be released in advance. Some are meant to make an emotional impact in the meeting. A customer story, a dramatic before-and-after image, or a short video clip often works best when revealed live. Sending these in advance can spoil their effect.

There’s also the risk of misinterpretation. Without your voice and explanation, senior leaders may draw the wrong conclusions from an image or video.

In competitive or sensitive situations, early sharing can lead to leaks.

A Balanced Approach for Sharing before Big Presentations

The preferred approach is to share summaries, key data visuals, or background images in advance. Save personal or emotional visuals for the actual presentation. Consider adding notes or captions to guide interpretation for pictures or videos shared in advance. Remember to prepare your senior management for significant decisions while still preserving the emotional impact of your message for the live moment.

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The elements of the FINESSE fishbone diagram® are Frame, Illustrate, Noise reduction, Empathy, Structure, Synergy, and Ethics. Visit our Tackle Shop for communication and facilitation resources.